Kalshi
Investment in Kalshi is impermissible because its core business relies on prediction markets (wagering on uncertain future events) and leveraged perpetual futures. Furthermore, the raised funds are explicitly earmarked to expand these non-compliant activities.
Sale Structure
IPO-style (Pre-IPO equity trading on secondary markets like Forge Global and Nasdaq Private Market).
Equity in Kalshi Inc. (if purchasing pre-IPO shares).
Scaling the Kalshi Pro terminal, expanding the crypto perpetuals offerings, and global expansion.
Full KYC/AML, CFTC regulation, regulated clearinghouse (Kalshi Klear LLC), and institutional audits.
Why This Verdict
The verdict for purchasing and holding equity in Kalshi is Haram. This ruling is driven by the fact that the company's primary revenue drivers—prediction markets and perpetual futures—are fundamentally incompatible with Islamic finance principles. Prediction markets inherently involve wagering on uncertain future events, which constitutes maysir (gambling or wagering), while leveraged perpetual futures introduce excessive uncertainty (gharar) and rely on non-compliant funding rates. Furthermore, the revenue purity analysis fails because the funds raised from this pre-IPO equity sale are explicitly earmarked to expand these non-compliant activities, specifically scaling the Kalshi Pro terminal and expanding their crypto perpetuals offerings. Because the core business activity and the intended use of funds are impermissible, the baseline holding of this equity is prohibited. There are no secondary opt-in mechanisms to evaluate here, as the primary asset itself is non-compliant.
Points of Caution
- !The core business model relies entirely on haram industry exposure, specifically betting, wagering, and leveraged derivatives, making the equity fundamentally non-compliant.
- !While the company is legitimate, the delivery certainty of the pre-IPO shares trading on secondary markets (such as Forge Global and Nasdaq Private Market) remains vague or undefined.
- !Because Kalshi has not minted a native cryptocurrency, there is a high risk of third-party scams offering fake $KALSHI tokens to capitalize on the brand's recent growth and Solana integration.
Purification Note
Not applicable. Because the core business activities (prediction markets and leveraged futures) and the intended use of funds are fundamentally impermissible, the asset cannot be held, and purification cannot legitimize the investment.
Bottom Line
Investing in Kalshi's pre-IPO equity is impermissible for Muslim investors because the company's core operations center on prediction markets and leveraged perpetual futures. These activities violate Islamic prohibitions against wagering (maysir) and excessive uncertainty (gharar). Furthermore, the capital raised is explicitly intended to fund the expansion of these non-compliant derivatives and betting markets, meaning investors should avoid this equity raise entirely. Please note that final religious authority rests with a qualified Shariah scholar.
How this verdict was reached
This is not an opinion issued by ShariaQuant. It is the output of a documented screening methodology applied to researched facts about Kalshi, and every row above states the specific evidence that drove it — so the reasoning can be examined rather than taken on trust.
An unlaunched raise is screened on the planned business, the structure of the sale itself, and the use of the funds raised. Because property must already exist at the time of a contract, an unissued token is treated as a contractual subscription right rather than a sale of an existing thing — which is tolerable only where the amount, price and delivery terms are all defined.
Guaranteed returns and loan-with-premium structures fail the screen as riba; undefined delivery terms are assessed as excessive uncertainty (gharar).
AAOIFI has not reviewed, approved or endorsed this report or ShariaQuant, and no scholar named in our methodology has reviewed this individual verdict. This is analysis, not a fatwa — final religious authority rests with a qualified scholar.
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