Lesson
Using ShariaQuant
Lesson 3 of 7 · 3 min

Test a buying plan through every crash

Most people who start buying Bitcoin every week stop at exactly the wrong moment. Not because the plan was wrong, but because nobody showed them what the middle of it feels like. The Bitcoin Lab shows you that middle before your own money is in it.

Start from the worst day there was

On the Lab's page the plan check needs no account. Pick an amount, every week or every month, and a start. The starts it offers first are the top of each cycle, the days just before Bitcoin fell by most of its price.

That is on purpose. A plan started at the bottom proves nothing. A plan that survives being started at the top survives everything this history has.

Look at two numbers, not one. What it is worth today is the number people share. The worst point, how far below what you had paid in it fell and how long it stayed there, is the number that decides whether you would have reached today at all.

Then live through it

In the Lab itself, test the same plan from the 2021 top: a replay that buys $100 every week as it goes. The chart moves forward a candle at a time, with the future hidden.

The first time it is down by half, the replay stops and asks: would you keep buying? Answer honestly. Stopping keeps what the plan holds and buys no more, and at the end you see both versions, the one you chose and the one that kept going.

Do it with your own account too

On today's prices, open a practice account with the amount you would really invest and set up a recurring buy: the same dollars every day, week or month, from the account's cash.

Under the chart, Recurring shows a what-if: a past crash laid over today's price, with your recurring buys running down it. It says how far your account would fall, what your average price would become, and whether your dollars would last to the bottom.

It is built only from what has already happened, and it is not a forecast. The next fall need not look like any before it. What it gives you is a rehearsal.

In one line: start from a top, read the worst point before the result, and decide in advance what you will do when the plan is down by half.

What you can do now

Start the plan from a cycle top, look at its worst point before its result, and decide now what you will do when it is down by half.

Dollar-cost averaging and the Muslim investor
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