Islamic scholars and bodies ruling on prediction markets.
Who ruled·What they said·Where to read it
A prediction market pays one side what the other loses on an uncertain event. The rulings on betting describe that structure exactly.
Last reviewed 26 September 2026.
Rulings and positions
Jordan's Iftaa' Department describes this exact arrangement in a 2016 fatwa. Two people stake money on whether something will happen, and whoever guesses right takes the other's money. Its example is a bet on whether it will rain tomorrow.
It rules that this kind of betting is prohibited gambling, because neither side knows whether they will win or lose, and that money made from betting on match results is prohibited. It cites Al-Ma'idah 5:90.
Foundations and principles
We found no fatwa from a major fiqh body on prediction markets such as Polymarket or Kalshi by name. The ruling above applies to them because a prediction market contract is that bet. Each side stakes money on whether an event happens, and one side takes what the other loses.
The prohibition of gambling (maysir) rests on Al-Ma'idah 5:90-91. Calling the contracts "trades", or the platform an "information market", does not change what the contract is.
Further reading
References
- General Iftaa' Department, Jordan (12 October 2016). Fatwa No. 3233: Betting on Matches Results is a Form of Prohibited Gambling. Source
ShariaQuant summarises what each body ruled, quotes the wording that matters, and links to every source so you can read the full ruling yourself. This is a record of their rulings, not a fatwa of our own.